Oriental vs Racing Montevideo prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.77 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRacing Montevideo to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceRacing Montevideo or draw ✓86% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗23% · fair 4.43
Oriental vs Racing Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
Racing Montevideo travel to face Oriental in the Copa Uruguay on Friday 4 September (00:00 WAT).
Form guide
Oriental's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Plaza Colonia 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Racing Montevideo's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Albion FC 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Racing Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.4 for Oriental and 1.4 for Racing Montevideo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Oriental 14%, draw 25%, Racing Montevideo 62%.
Safer route: Racing Montevideo or draw (86%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.77 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.23, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Oriental 0–1 Racing Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Oriental14%fair 7.28 · @4.20
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.55
Racing Montevideo62%fair 1.62 · @1.70
1.79Expected goals
0.44Oriental xG
1.35Racing Montevideo xG
46%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–123%
0–017%
0–215%
1–110%
1–07%
0–37%
From our goals model: Oriental 0.4 – 1.4 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Racing Montevideo to win✓
62%
1.62
1.70
Double chance
Racing Montevideo or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.77 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Racing Montevideo / FT Racing Montevideo✗
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
23%
4.43
–
Form
Oriental – last 6
WLWDLL
31 Aug
vs Plaza Colonia
2–0
W
26 Aug
@ Juventud
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ La Luz
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Cerrito
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Atenas
0–1
L
3 Aug
@ Paysandu
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Racing Montevideo – last 6
WDWDWL
31 Aug
vs Albion FC
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Danubio
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Club Nacional
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Deportivo Maldonado
2–2
D
2 Aug
vs Boston River
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ Cerro
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Oriental and Racing Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Oriental vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Oriental vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Oriental have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Racing Montevideo 62%.
How many goals will there be in Oriental vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Oriental vs Racing Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Oriental 0–1 Racing Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Oriental vs Racing Montevideo?
Oriental vs Racing Montevideo (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
