Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗64% · @1.70
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓87% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.35
Atenas vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
Penarol travel to face Atenas in the Copa Uruguay on Thursday 3 September (00:00 WAT).
Form guide
Atenas's last 5: LLDWW Most recently they lost to Paysandu 0–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Club Nacional 0–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Atenas and 1.9 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atenas 13%, draw 23%, Penarol 64%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 1.70 – 64% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Atenas 0–2 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atenas13%fair 7.70 · @5.10
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.20
Penarol64%fair 1.55 · @1.70
2.64Expected goals
0.73Atenas xG
1.90Penarol xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Atenas 0.7 – 1.9 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✗
64%
1.55
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.18
Half-time result
Penarol ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.35
–
Form
Atenas – last 6
LLDWWW
29 Aug
@ Paysandu
0–2
L
26 Aug
@ Danubio
2–3
L
23 Aug
vs Sportivo Huracan
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Uruguay Montevideo
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Oriental
1–0
W
3 Aug
vs Colón
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penarol – last 6
LWDWWW
30 Aug
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
27 Aug
vs Atletico Torque
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Deportivo Maldonado
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Central Espanol
2–1
W
6 Aug
vs Wanderers
5–1
W
1 Aug
vs Cerro Largo
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atenas and Penarol.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Atenas vs Penarol?
On our numbers Atenas have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Penarol 64%.
How many goals will there be in Atenas vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atenas vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Atenas 0–2 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atenas vs Penarol?
Atenas vs Penarol (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 3 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
