Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.45 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Fe to win ✗45% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.08
Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama preview and prediction
The match
The CONMEBOL Sudamericana sees Santa Fe take on Vasco DA Gama on Tuesday 8 September, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Santa Fe's last 5: DWDDD Most recently they drew with Fortaleza FC 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Fluminense 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Vasco DA Gama arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Santa Fe and 1.1 for Vasco DA Gama. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Fe 45%, draw 23%, Vasco DA Gama 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.45 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Santa Fe 1–1 Vasco DA Gama. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Fe45%fair 2.23 · @2.18
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.10
Vasco DA Gama33%fair 3.07 · @3.45
2.35Expected goals
1.30Santa Fe xG
1.05Vasco DA Gama xG
56%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Santa Fe 1.3 – 1.1 Vasco DA Gama expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Fe to win✗
45%
2.23
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Fe / FT Santa Fe✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.08
–
Form
Santa Fe – last 6
DWDDDD
6 Sep
vs Fortaleza FC
2–2
D
3 Sep
vs Millonarios
3–2
W
30 Aug
@ Junior
1–1
D
27 Aug
@ River Plate
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs America de Cali
0–0
D
20 Aug
vs River Plate
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Vasco DA Gama – last 6
LWWWLW
6 Sep
@ Fluminense
0–1
L
3 Sep
@ Vitoria
2–0
W
30 Aug
vs Cruzeiro
3–1
W
27 Aug
vs Vitoria
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Palmeiras
1–4
L
20 Aug
@ Olimpia
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Fe and Vasco DA Gama.
What is the prediction for Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
On our numbers Santa Fe have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Vasco DA Gama 33%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our predicted score is Santa Fe 1–1 Vasco DA Gama, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama?
Santa Fe vs Vasco DA Gama (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Tuesday 8 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
