Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSouth Melbourne to win ✓63% · @1.62
Double chanceSouth Melbourne or draw ✓88% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.27
South Melbourne vs Lions preview and prediction
The match
South Melbourne host Lions in the Australia Cup on Tuesday 15 September, with kick-off at 10:30 (WAT) at Lakeside Stadium.
Form guide
South Melbourne's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Oakleigh Cannons 1–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lions's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Peninsula Power 1–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lions arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for South Melbourne and 1.0 for Lions. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: South Melbourne 63%, draw 24%, Lions 12%.
Safer route: South Melbourne or draw (88%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was South Melbourne to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: South Melbourne 2–1 Lions. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
South Melbourne63%fair 1.58 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.90
Lions12%fair 8.14 · @4.33
3.33Expected goals
2.31South Melbourne xG
1.02Lions xG
62%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 2.3 – 1.0 Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
South Melbourne to win✓
63%
1.58
1.62
Double chance
South Melbourne or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
South Melbourne ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT South Melbourne / FT South Melbourne✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.27
–
Form
South Melbourne – last 6
LWLWLW
11 Sep
@ Oakleigh Cannons
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Heidelberg United
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Sunshine Georgies
0–1
L
26 Aug
@ Preston Lions
2–1
W
23 Aug
vs Heidelberg United
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Melbourne City II
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Lions – last 6
WWWWWW
12 Sep
vs Peninsula Power
1–0
W
30 Aug
vs Peninsula Power
4–1
W
25 Aug
vs North Sunshine Eagles
4–0
W
14 Aug
@ Moreton City Excelsior
2–0
W
11 Aug
vs Melbourne City
2–0
W
7 Aug
vs Brisbane Roar II
4–2
W
2.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Lions.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Lions?
Our pick is South Melbourne to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Lions?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lions 12%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Lions?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Lions?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 2–1 Lions, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Lions?
South Melbourne vs Lions (Australia Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 15 September 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Lakeside Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
