Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Luis FranziniAlbion FC vs Progreso prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.97 · bookmaker 1.85 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Progreso to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Albion FC 1.3 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Albion FC hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Progreso.
Albion FC have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Progreso have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 0.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.3 for Albion FC, 1.0 for Progreso). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (12%), 0–1 (10%).
In their last 2 meetings, Albion FC have won 2, Progreso have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is close to our fair price of 1.97. For a bigger price, Progreso to win at 3.40 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Albion FC to win ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.46 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.27 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.21 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Albion FC / FT Albion FC ✗ | 25% | 3.99 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 12% | 8.06 | – |
Form
Albion FC – last 6
| 3 Sep | vs Progreso | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Racing Montevideo | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | @ Club Nacional | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Boston River | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Cerro | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–1 | L |
Progreso – last 6
| 3 Sep | @ Albion FC | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Danubio | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | vs CA River Plate | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Club Nacional | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Deportivo Maldonado | 0–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | @ Central Espanol | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 3 Sep 2026 | Albion FC v Progreso | 2–1 |
| 7 Jun 2026 | Progreso v Albion FC | 1–2 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Albion FC vs Progreso?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Albion FC vs Progreso?
On our numbers Albion FC have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Progreso 32%.
How many goals will there be in Albion FC vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Albion FC vs Progreso?
Albion FC vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.