Value bet: Ario Eslamshahr to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArio Eslamshahr to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.45
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr preview and prediction
The match
Ario Eslamshahr travel to Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium in the Azadegan League on Monday 5 October (14:30 WAT) to face Mes Rafsanjan. Mes Rafsanjan are 4th with 16 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Ario Eslamshahr sit 7th on 13 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mes Rafsanjan's last 5: WDDLW Most recently they beat Be'sat Kermanshah 1–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ario Eslamshahr's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Havadar 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.7 for Mes Rafsanjan and 0.9 for Ario Eslamshahr. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mes Rafsanjan 32%, draw 24%, Ario Eslamshahr 44%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Ario Eslamshahr to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.34. Predicted score: Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mes Rafsanjan32%fair 3.12 · @2.77
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.77
Ario Eslamshahr44%fair 2.28 · @2.50
1.59Expected goals
0.69Mes Rafsanjan xG
0.90Ario Eslamshahr xG
47%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–020%
0–118%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Mes Rafsanjan 0.7 – 0.9 Ario Eslamshahr expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ario Eslamshahr to win✗
44%
2.28
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.59
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.34
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
56%
1.79
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.45
–
Form
Mes Rafsanjan – last 5
WDDLW
29 Sep
vs Be'sat Kermanshah
1–0
W
22 Sep
@ Mes Soongoun
0–0
D
16 Sep
vs Havadar
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Esteghlal FC
0–1
L
14 Feb
@ Paykan
2–0
W
0.6Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ario Eslamshahr – last 6
WWLWDD
28 Sep
vs Havadar
2–0
W
22 Sep
@ Naft Gachsaran
1–0
W
16 Sep
vs Naft Masjed Soleyman
0–3
L
17 Jul
@ Nassaji Mazandaran
2–1
W
11 Jul
vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1–1
D
3 Jul
@ Damash Gilanian
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mes Rafsanjan and Ario Eslamshahr.
What is the prediction for Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
On our numbers Mes Rafsanjan have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ario Eslamshahr 44%.
How many goals will there be in Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Our predicted score is Mes Rafsanjan 0–0 Ario Eslamshahr, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr?
Mes Rafsanjan vs Ario Eslamshahr (Azadegan League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
