Value bet: LDU Portoviejo to win @ 3.40 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU Portoviejo to win ✓37% · @3.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.07
El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo preview and prediction
The match
LDU Portoviejo travel to face El Nacional in the Liga Pro Serie B on Saturday 5 September (01:00 WAT). El Nacional are 12th with 12 points from 22 games (in the bottom three), while LDU Portoviejo sit 9th on 27 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
El Nacional's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Gualaceo SC 0–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
LDU Portoviejo's last 5: DWDDL Most recently they drew with Cumbayá 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 31 May 2026, finished El Nacional 0–1 LDU Portoviejo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.0 for El Nacional and 1.0 for LDU Portoviejo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: El Nacional 36%, draw 27%, LDU Portoviejo 37%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.70.
Value angle: LDU Portoviejo to win at 3.40 – 37% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: El Nacional 0–0 LDU Portoviejo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
El Nacional36%fair 2.78 · @2.25
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @2.70
LDU Portoviejo37%fair 2.70 · @3.40
1.93Expected goals
0.96El Nacional xG
0.97LDU Portoviejo xG
49%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–114%
1–014%
1–114%
0–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: El Nacional 1.0 – 1.0 LDU Portoviejo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
On our numbers El Nacional have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and LDU Portoviejo 37%.
How many goals will there be in El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
Our predicted score is El Nacional 0–0 LDU Portoviejo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo?
El Nacional vs LDU Portoviejo (Liga Pro Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
