Russia vs Iran prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Russia 1.8 – 1.0 Iran expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Russia hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 21% for Iran.
Russia have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches (3W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.4 per game. Iran have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.8 for Russia, 1.0 for Iran). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 1–1 (11%), 2–0 (10%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.34.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Russia to win ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.82 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.79 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.26 |
| Half-time result | Russia ahead at half-time ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Russia / FT Russia ✓ | 35% | 2.84 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.86 | – |
Form
Russia – last 5
| 9 Jun | vs Trinidad and Tobago | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Jun | vs Burkina Faso | 3–0 | W |
| 28 May | @ Egypt | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Mali | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Mar | vs Nicaragua | 3–1 | W |
Iran – last 6
| 24 Sep | @ Uzbekistan | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Jun | @ Egypt | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Jun | @ Belgium | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Jun | vs New Zealand | 2–2 | D |
| 29 May | vs Gambia | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ Costa Rica | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Russia and Iran.
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What is the prediction for Russia vs Iran?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Russia vs Iran?
On our numbers Russia have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Iran 21%.
How many goals will there be in Russia vs Iran?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Russia vs Iran?
Russia vs Iran (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Kazan Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.