Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Al Ansar to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Ansar to win ✓64% · @1.95
Double chanceAl Ansar or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.66
Paro vs Al Ansar preview and prediction
The match
The AFC Challenge League sees Paro take on Al Ansar on Tuesday 20 October, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Changlimithang Stadium.
Form guide
Paro's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Ahal 2–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 4.2 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Al Ansar's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Al Ittihad 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Paro and 1.9 for Al Ansar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paro 16%, draw 20%, Al Ansar 64%.
Safer route: Al Ansar or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Al Ansar to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Al Ansar or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Paro 0–1 Al Ansar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paro16%fair 6.41 · @3.40
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.25
Al Ansar64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
2.67Expected goals
0.79Paro xG
1.88Al Ansar xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Paro 0.8 – 1.9 Al Ansar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ansar to win✓
64%
1.56
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Al Ansar or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Al Ansar ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ansar / FT Al Ansar✓
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.66
–
Form
Paro – last 6
DWWWWW
17 Oct
@ Ahal
2–2
D
8 Oct
@ Thimphu City
2–0
W
3 Oct
vs Bhutan U19
6–0
W
12 Sep
@ Transport United
4–2
W
8 Sep
@ Ugyen Academy
10–0
W
22 Aug
vs RTC
1–0
W
4.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Al Ansar – last 6
WWWWDD
17 Oct
vs Al Ittihad
2–0
W
8 Oct
vs Al Hikma
2–1
W
2 Aug
@ Al Nejmeh
2–1
W
28 Jul
@ Jwaaya FC
2–1
W
24 Jul
@ Al Ahed
1–1
D
20 Jul
vs Al Nejmeh
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paro and Al Ansar.
Our pick is Al Ansar or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Paro vs Al Ansar?
On our numbers Paro have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Al Ansar 64%.
How many goals will there be in Paro vs Al Ansar?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paro vs Al Ansar?
Our predicted score is Paro 0–1 Al Ansar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Paro vs Al Ansar?
Paro vs Al Ansar (AFC Challenge League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Changlimithang Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Fortis1
Goa2
Al Ittihad5
Ahal1