Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Nacional Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓64% · @1.80
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.38
Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Recoleta travel to Estádio Arsenio Erico in the Division Profesional Clausura on Monday 12 October (23:20 WAT) to face Nacional Asuncion. Nacional Asuncion are 4th with 32 points from 19 games (in the top four), while Deportivo Recoleta sit 11th on 16 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Olimpia 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Deportivo Recoleta's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Libertad Asuncion 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 August 2026, finished Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional Asuncion. Across their last 2 meetings Nacional Asuncion have won 0, Deportivo Recoleta 1, with 1 draw and 4.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Nacional Asuncion and 0.8 for Deportivo Recoleta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional Asuncion 64%, draw 21%, Deportivo Recoleta 15%.
Safer route: Nacional Asuncion or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Nacional Asuncion to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nacional Asuncion or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional Asuncion64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.40
Deportivo Recoleta15%fair 6.74 · @4.00
2.62Expected goals
1.86Nacional Asuncion xG
0.76Deportivo Recoleta xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.9 – 0.8 Deportivo Recoleta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Deportivo Recoleta 15%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 23:20 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Arsenio Erico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
