Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Nacional Asuncion to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.80 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✗65% · @1.80
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.58
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano preview and prediction
The match
Nacional Asuncion host Sportivo Ameliano in the Division Profesional Clausura on Friday 25 September, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estádio Arsenio Erico. Nacional Asuncion are 4th with 32 points from 19 games (in the top four), while Sportivo Ameliano sit 9th on 19 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: WWLWW Most recently they beat 2 de Mayo 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sportivo Ameliano's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Libertad Asuncion 1–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 July 2026, finished Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Nacional Asuncion. Across their last 3 meetings Nacional Asuncion have won 0, Sportivo Ameliano 0, with 3 draws and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.7 for Nacional Asuncion and 0.6 for Sportivo Ameliano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nacional Asuncion 65%, draw 21%, Sportivo Ameliano 13%.
Safer route: Nacional Asuncion or draw (87%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nacional Asuncion to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nacional Asuncion65%fair 1.53 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.66 · @3.20
Sportivo Ameliano13%fair 7.58 · @4.60
2.23Expected goals
1.67Nacional Asuncion xG
0.56Sportivo Ameliano xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Nacional Asuncion 1.7 – 0.6 Sportivo Ameliano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our pick is Nacional Asuncion to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
On our numbers Nacional Asuncion have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sportivo Ameliano 13%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our predicted score is Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Friday 25 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Arsenio Erico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
