Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Libertad Asuncion or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Libertad Asuncion to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLibertad Asuncion to win ✗61% · @1.75
Double chanceLibertad Asuncion or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.42
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano preview and prediction
The match
Libertad Asuncion host Sportivo Ameliano in the Division Profesional Clausura on Saturday 19 September, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta. Libertad Asuncion are 3rd with 33 points from 19 games (in the top four), while Sportivo Ameliano sit 9th on 19 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Libertad Asuncion's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat 2 de Mayo 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sportivo Ameliano's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 March 2026, finished Sportivo Ameliano 2–0 Libertad Asuncion.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Libertad Asuncion and 0.8 for Sportivo Ameliano. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%.
Safer route: Libertad Asuncion or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Libertad Asuncion to win at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Libertad Asuncion or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertad Asuncion61%fair 1.65 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.40
Sportivo Ameliano14%fair 6.95 · @4.20
2.60Expected goals
1.82Libertad Asuncion xG
0.78Sportivo Ameliano xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Libertad Asuncion 1.8 – 0.8 Sportivo Ameliano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our pick is Libertad Asuncion or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
On our numbers Libertad Asuncion have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sportivo Ameliano 14%.
How many goals will there be in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Our predicted score is Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Sportivo Ameliano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tigo La Huerta.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
