Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Dragones de Oaxaca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Dragones de Oaxaca to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDragones de Oaxaca to win ✓57% · @1.91
Double chanceDragones de Oaxaca or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗6% · fair 16.03
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Premier Serie A sees Dragones de Oaxaca take on Mineros de Fresnillo on Sunday 1 November, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT). Dragones de Oaxaca are 1st with 25 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Mineros de Fresnillo sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Dragones de Oaxaca's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Héroes de Zaci 6–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mineros de Fresnillo's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Calor de San Pedro 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Dragones de Oaxaca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Dragones de Oaxaca and 1.0 for Mineros de Fresnillo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 56% and both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dragones de Oaxaca 57%, draw 25%, Mineros de Fresnillo 18%.
Safer route: Dragones de Oaxaca or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Dragones de Oaxaca to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Dragones de Oaxaca or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Dragones de Oaxaca 1–1 Mineros de Fresnillo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dragones de Oaxaca57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.40
Mineros de Fresnillo18%fair 5.52 · @3.40
2.96Expected goals
1.93Dragones de Oaxaca xG
1.03Mineros de Fresnillo xG
48%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–010%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Dragones de Oaxaca 1.9 – 1.0 Mineros de Fresnillo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dragones de Oaxaca to win✓
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Dragones de Oaxaca or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Dragones de Oaxaca ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dragones de Oaxaca / FT Dragones de Oaxaca✓
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
6%
16.03
–
Form
Dragones de Oaxaca – last 6
WDWWDW
25 Oct
vs Héroes de Zaci
6–0
W
17 Oct
@ Artesanos Metepec
0–0
D
13 Oct
vs Guerreros del Pacifico
5–1
W
4 Oct
vs Real Refineros
3–2
W
27 Sep
@ Delfines Coatzacoalcos
3–3
D
20 Sep
vs Cañoneros Marina
3–0
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Mineros de Fresnillo – last 6
WDWWLL
25 Oct
vs Calor de San Pedro
4–1
W
17 Oct
vs Guerreros
0–0
D
10 Oct
@ Acatlan
4–2
W
3 Oct
vs Atlético Saltillo
3–0
W
27 Sep
@ Vaqueros Reynosa
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Héroes de Zaci
0–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dragones de Oaxaca and Mineros de Fresnillo.
What is the prediction for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Our pick is Dragones de Oaxaca or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
On our numbers Dragones de Oaxaca have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mineros de Fresnillo 18%.
How many goals will there be in Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Our predicted score is Dragones de Oaxaca 1–1 Mineros de Fresnillo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo?
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Mineros de Fresnillo (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
