Double chanceDragones de Oaxaca or draw ✓93% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.69
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros preview and prediction
The match
Dragones de Oaxaca host Real Refineros in the Liga Premier Serie A on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT). Dragones de Oaxaca are 1st with 25 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Real Refineros sit 8th on 15 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Dragones de Oaxaca's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Delfines Coatzacoalcos 3–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Real Refineros's last 4: DDWL Most recently they drew with Delfines Coatzacoalcos 2–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Dragones de Oaxaca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.5 for Dragones de Oaxaca and 0.8 for Real Refineros. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dragones de Oaxaca 72%, draw 21%, Real Refineros 7%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Dragones de Oaxaca to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.29. Predicted score: Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Real Refineros. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dragones de Oaxaca72%fair 1.40 · @1.29
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @5.00
Real Refineros7%fair 13.91 · @8.50
3.30Expected goals
2.50Dragones de Oaxaca xG
0.80Real Refineros xG
51%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–09%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Dragones de Oaxaca 2.5 – 0.8 Real Refineros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Dragones de Oaxaca to win✓
72%
1.40
1.29
Double chance
Dragones de Oaxaca or draw✓
93%
1.08
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Dragones de Oaxaca ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Dragones de Oaxaca / FT Dragones de Oaxaca✓
51%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.69
–
Form
Dragones de Oaxaca – last 6
DWDWWD
27 Sep
@ Delfines Coatzacoalcos
3–3
D
20 Sep
vs Cañoneros Marina
3–0
W
13 Sep
@ Acambaro
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Halcones Negros
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Ciervos
2–0
W
26 Mar
vs Poza Rica
1–1
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Real Refineros – last 4
DDWL
20 Sep
@ Delfines Coatzacoalcos
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Calor de San Pedro
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Cañoneros Marina
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Artesanos Metepec
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dragones de Oaxaca and Real Refineros.
What is the prediction for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
Our pick is Dragones de Oaxaca to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.29.
Who will win Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
On our numbers Dragones de Oaxaca have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Real Refineros 7%.
How many goals will there be in Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
Our predicted score is Dragones de Oaxaca 2–0 Real Refineros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros?
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
