Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceAtletico-MG or draw ✓88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.83
Atletico-MG vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
Santos travel to MRV Arena in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Wednesday 16 September (23:00 WAT) to face Atletico-MG. Atletico-MG are 1st with 10 points from 6 games, while Santos sit 2nd on 7 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Fluminense 3–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Santos's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Cruzeiro 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 September 2026, finished Santos 2–0 Atletico-MG. Across their last 2 meetings Atletico-MG have won 0, Santos 2, with 0 draws and 1.5 goals per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Atletico-MG and 0.7 for Santos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico-MG or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG65%fair 1.54 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.10
Santos12%fair 8.60 · @4.00
2.55Expected goals
1.87Atletico-MG xG
0.68Santos xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.9 – 0.7 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Atletico-MG or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Santos?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Santos 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Santos?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Santos?
Atletico-MG vs Santos (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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