Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.80 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win ✗38% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.28
LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
LDU de Quito host Palmeiras in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Wednesday 16 September, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado. LDU de Quito are 1st with 12 points from 6 games, while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 11 points. Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
LDU de Quito's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Cuenca 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Palmeiras's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Sao Paulo 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 9 September 2026, finished Palmeiras 1–0 LDU de Quito.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for LDU de Quito and 1.0 for Palmeiras. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: LDU de Quito 36%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 2.80 – 38% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 2.00. Predicted score: LDU de Quito 1–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
LDU de Quito36%fair 2.75 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.90
Palmeiras38%fair 2.63 · @2.80
2.00Expected goals
0.98LDU de Quito xG
1.02Palmeiras xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.0 – 1.0 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Palmeiras 38%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras?
LDU de Quito vs Palmeiras (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
