Value bet: Nkwazi to win @ 3.80 – our chance 31% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGreen Buffaloes to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.46
Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi preview and prediction
The match
Green Buffaloes host Nkwazi in the Super League on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT). Green Buffaloes are 2nd with 0 points from 0 games (in the top four), while Nkwazi sit 7th on 0 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Green Buffaloes's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Roan United 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nkwazi's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Chirundu Utd 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Green Buffaloes arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.0 for Green Buffaloes and 0.7 for Nkwazi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Green Buffaloes 45%, draw 24%, Nkwazi 31%.
Value angle: Nkwazi to win at 3.80 – 31% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Green Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Green Buffaloes45%fair 2.21 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.75
Nkwazi31%fair 3.26 · @3.80
1.65Expected goals
0.95Green Buffaloes xG
0.70Nkwazi xG
39%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–018%
0–113%
1–113%
2–09%
2–16%
From our goals model: Green Buffaloes 1.0 – 0.7 Nkwazi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Green Buffaloes to win✗
45%
2.21
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
27%
3.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.46
–
Form
Green Buffaloes – last 6
DWLWDL
10 Oct
@ Roan United
0–0
D
4 Oct
vs Chirundu Utd
2–0
W
22 May
@ Red Arrows
0–2
L
29 Apr
vs Green Eagles
1–0
W
16 Apr
@ Man Utd Zambia Academy
0–0
D
1 Apr
@ ZESCO United
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Nkwazi – last 6
DLLLLW
10 Oct
vs Chirundu Utd
0–0
D
3 Oct
vs Roan United
1–2
L
24 May
@ Prison Leopards
0–1
L
29 Apr
@ Nchanga Rangers
0–1
L
22 Apr
vs Power Dynamos
0–1
L
15 Apr
vs NAPSA Stars
2–1
W
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Green Buffaloes and Nkwazi.
What is the prediction for Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi?
On our numbers Green Buffaloes have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nkwazi 31%.
How many goals will there be in Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi?
Our predicted score is Green Buffaloes 0–0 Nkwazi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi?
Green Buffaloes vs Nkwazi (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
