Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
1
Value bet: Mutondo Stars to win @ 3.30 – our chance 34% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRed Arrows to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.04
Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows preview and prediction
The match
Red Arrows travel to face Mutondo Stars in the Super League on Sunday 4 October (14:00 WAT). Mutondo Stars are 9th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while Red Arrows sit 4th on 0 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mutondo Stars's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to NAPSA Stars 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Red Arrows's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Inate Rouge 2–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Red Arrows arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Mutondo Stars and 1.1 for Red Arrows. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mutondo Stars 34%, draw 24%, Red Arrows 42%.
Value angle: Mutondo Stars to win at 3.30 – 34% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Mutondo Stars 0–1 Red Arrows. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mutondo Stars34%fair 2.95 · @3.30
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.80
Red Arrows42%fair 2.37 · @2.20
2.05Expected goals
0.95Mutondo Stars xG
1.11Red Arrows xG
44%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Mutondo Stars 0.9 – 1.1 Red Arrows expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Red Arrows to win✓
42%
2.37
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Red Arrows / FT Red Arrows✓
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.04
–
Form
Mutondo Stars – last 6
LLLDLD
24 May
@ NAPSA Stars
0–1
L
29 Apr
@ Mufulira Wanderers
0–1
L
15 Apr
vs Green Eagles
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Konkola Blades
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs Zanaco
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ Nkwazi
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Red Arrows – last 6
WWWWDW
13 Sep
@ Inate Rouge
2–0
W
5 Sep
vs Inate Rouge
2–0
W
22 May
vs Green Buffaloes
2–0
W
14 May
vs Green Eagles
2–1
W
29 Apr
vs Konkola Blades
1–1
D
1 Apr
@ Nkana
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mutondo Stars and Red Arrows.
What is the prediction for Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows?
On our numbers Mutondo Stars have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Red Arrows 42%.
How many goals will there be in Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows?
Our predicted score is Mutondo Stars 0–1 Red Arrows, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows?
Mutondo Stars vs Red Arrows (Super League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
