The Birinci Dasta sees Səbail take on Karvan on Thursday 8 October, kicking off at 12:30 (WAT) at ASCO Arena. Səbail are 5th with 12 points from 7 games (in the top half), while Karvan sit 4th on 13 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Səbail's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Baku Sportinq 1–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.3 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Karvan's last 5: WLWDL Most recently they beat Zaqatala 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Səbail arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.5 for Səbail and 0.8 for Karvan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Səbail 57%, draw 22%, Karvan 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Səbail to win – a 57% chance at odds of 1.80. Predicted score: Səbail 1–0 Karvan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Səbail57%fair 1.77 · @1.80
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.25
Karvan22%fair 4.55 · @3.75
2.33Expected goals
1.52Səbail xG
0.81Karvan xG
51%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Səbail 1.5 – 0.8 Karvan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Səbail to win✗
57%
1.77
1.80
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Səbail / FT Səbail✗
33%
3.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.74
–
Form
Səbail – last 6
WWDLWW
17 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
1–0
W
10 Sep
vs Mingəçevir
2–1
W
3 Sep
@ Xankəndi FK
1–1
D
22 May
@ Mingəçevir
1–4
L
6 May
@ Zaqatala
3–0
W
30 Apr
vs Cəbrayıl
6–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Karvan – last 6
WLWDLL
16 Sep
vs Zaqatala
3–0
W
9 Sep
@ Şahdağ
0–2
L
3 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
3–0
W
24 May
@ Imisli FK
1–1
D
10 May
@ Turan
0–1
L
5 May
vs Neftchi Baku
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Səbail and Karvan.
Our pick is Səbail to win with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Səbail vs Karvan?
On our numbers Səbail have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Karvan 22%.
How many goals will there be in Səbail vs Karvan?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Səbail vs Karvan?
Our predicted score is Səbail 1–0 Karvan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Səbail vs Karvan?
Səbail vs Karvan (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 8 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at ASCO Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
