Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultKarvan to win ✗40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.63
Şahdağ vs Karvan preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees Şahdağ take on Karvan on Wednesday 9 September, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT). Şahdağ are 2nd with 15 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Karvan sit 4th on 13 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Şahdağ's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat MOIK 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Karvan's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Baku Sportinq 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Şahdağ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Şahdağ and 1.1 for Karvan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şahdağ 36%, draw 24%, Karvan 40%.
Value angle: Şahdağ to win at 3.20 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Şahdağ 1–1 Karvan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şahdağ36%fair 2.80 · @3.20
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Karvan40%fair 2.47 · @2.05
2.14Expected goals
1.03Şahdağ xG
1.12Karvan xG
43%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Şahdağ 1.0 – 1.1 Karvan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Karvan to win✗
40%
2.47
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Karvan / FT Karvan✗
21%
4.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.63
–
Form
Şahdağ – last 6
WDWWWD
3 Sep
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 May
vs Baku Sportinq
1–1
D
5 May
vs Mingəçevir
2–0
W
29 Apr
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Zaqatala
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Cəbrayıl
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Karvan – last 6
WDLLLW
3 Sep
@ Baku Sportinq
3–0
W
24 May
@ Imisli FK
1–1
D
10 May
@ Turan
0–1
L
5 May
vs Neftchi Baku
0–3
L
27 Apr
@ Sabah FA
0–2
L
10 Apr
vs Kapaz
4–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şahdağ and Karvan.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Şahdağ vs Karvan?
On our numbers Şahdağ have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Karvan 40%.
How many goals will there be in Şahdağ vs Karvan?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şahdağ vs Karvan?
Our predicted score is Şahdağ 1–1 Karvan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Şahdağ vs Karvan?
Şahdağ vs Karvan (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
