Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: MOIK to win @ 1.85 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMOIK to win ✗60% · @1.85
Double chanceMOIK or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.27
MOIK vs Şimal preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees MOIK take on Şimal on Friday 11 September, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT). MOIK are 3rd with 14 points from 7 games (in the top four), while Şimal sit 6th on 8 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
MOIK's last 5: LWDLL Most recently they lost to Şahdağ 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Şimal's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Cəbrayıl 1–2 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 May 2026, finished Şimal 1–1 MOIK.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.4 for MOIK and 0.6 for Şimal. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: MOIK 60%, draw 21%, Şimal 19%.
Safer route: MOIK or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.62.
Value angle: MOIK to win at 1.85 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was MOIK or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: MOIK 1–0 Şimal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MOIK60%fair 1.67 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.30
Şimal19%fair 5.29 · @3.50
2.00Expected goals
1.40MOIK xG
0.60Şimal xG
51%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
0–014%
2–013%
1–111%
0–18%
2–18%
From our goals model: MOIK 1.4 – 0.6 Şimal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is MOIK or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win MOIK vs Şimal?
On our numbers MOIK have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Şimal 19%.
How many goals will there be in MOIK vs Şimal?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MOIK vs Şimal?
Our predicted score is MOIK 1–0 Şimal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is MOIK vs Şimal?
MOIK vs Şimal (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
