Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.73 – our chance 67% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerry City to win ✓59% · @1.85
Double chanceDerry City or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.73
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.44
Derry City vs Dundalk preview and prediction
The match
Dundalk travel to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in the FAI Cup on Sunday 6 September (16:00 WAT) to face Derry City.
Form guide
Derry City's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Shamrock Rovers 3–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Dundalk's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Drogheda United 3–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 May 2026, finished Dundalk 2–1 Derry City. Across their last 3 meetings Derry City have won 0, Dundalk 1, with 2 draws and 3.7 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 2.8 for Derry City and 1.7 for Dundalk. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 83% and both teams to score at 67%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derry City 59%, draw 23%, Dundalk 18%.
Safer route: Derry City or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.73 – 67% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derry City or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derry City 2–1 Dundalk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derry City59%fair 1.68 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.30
Dundalk18%fair 5.59 · @3.70
4.50Expected goals
2.84Derry City xG
1.66Dundalk xG
67%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
1–15%
4–15%
From our goals model: Derry City 2.8 – 1.7 Dundalk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Derry City or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Derry City vs Dundalk?
On our numbers Derry City have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Dundalk 18%.
How many goals will there be in Derry City vs Dundalk?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derry City vs Dundalk?
Our predicted score is Derry City 2–1 Dundalk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Derry City vs Dundalk?
Derry City vs Dundalk (FAI Cup) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
