Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Mgarr United to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMgarr United to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceMgarr United or draw ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.87
Mgarr United vs Zurrieq preview and prediction
The match
Zurrieq travel to face Mgarr United in the Challenge League on Sunday 25 October (19:30 WAT). Mgarr United are 7th with 10 points from 7 games (in the top half), while Zurrieq sit 8th on 10 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Mgarr United's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat St. Andrews 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Zurrieq's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Gudja United 1–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Mgarr United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Mgarr United and 0.7 for Zurrieq. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mgarr United 64%, draw 21%, Zurrieq 15%.
Safer route: Mgarr United or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Mgarr United to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mgarr United or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mgarr United 1–0 Zurrieq. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mgarr United64%fair 1.56 · @1.80
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.60
Zurrieq15%fair 6.63 · @3.60
2.52Expected goals
1.80Mgarr United xG
0.71Zurrieq xG
46%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: Mgarr United 1.8 – 0.7 Zurrieq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mgarr United to win✗
64%
1.56
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Mgarr United or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Half-time result
Mgarr United ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mgarr United / FT Mgarr United✗
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.87
–
Form
Mgarr United – last 6
WWWLDD
17 Oct
@ St. Andrews
2–0
W
10 Oct
vs Vittoriosa Stars
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Melita
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Tarxien Rainbows
1–3
L
6 Apr
vs Santa Lucía
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Vittoriosa Stars
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Zurrieq – last 6
WDLLWD
17 Oct
vs Gudja United
1–0
W
11 Oct
@ Santa Lucía
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Victoria Hotspurs
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Sirens
0–1
L
1 Apr
vs Marsa
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Zebbug Rangers
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mgarr United and Zurrieq.
What is the prediction for Mgarr United vs Zurrieq?
Our pick is Mgarr United or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mgarr United vs Zurrieq?
On our numbers Mgarr United have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Zurrieq 15%.
How many goals will there be in Mgarr United vs Zurrieq?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mgarr United vs Zurrieq?
Our predicted score is Mgarr United 1–0 Zurrieq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mgarr United vs Zurrieq?
Mgarr United vs Zurrieq (Challenge League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
