Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 54% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Lucía to win ✗58% · @1.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq preview and prediction
The match
Zurrieq travel to face Santa Lucía in the Challenge League on Sunday 11 October (16:30 WAT). Santa Lucía are 13th with 6 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while Zurrieq sit 8th on 10 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Santa Lucía's last 5: DDDDD Most recently they drew with St. Andrews 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Zurrieq's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Victoria Hotspurs 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Santa Lucía and 0.7 for Zurrieq. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 54% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Lucía 58%, draw 19%, Zurrieq 23%.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.10 – 54% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Santa Lucía to win – a 58% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Santa Lucía 1–0 Zurrieq. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Lucía58%fair 1.72 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.28 · @3.75
Zurrieq23%fair 4.39 · @3.70
2.20Expected goals
1.46Santa Lucía xG
0.74Zurrieq xG
44%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–112%
2–012%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Santa Lucía 1.5 – 0.7 Zurrieq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Lucía to win✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Lucía / FT Santa Lucía✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.16
–
Form
Santa Lucía – last 5
DDDDD
18 Sep
@ St. Andrews
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Vittoriosa Stars
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Mgarr United
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Vittoriosa Stars
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Zebbug Rangers
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Zurrieq – last 6
LLWDDW
19 Sep
vs Victoria Hotspurs
1–2
L
12 Sep
@ Sirens
0–1
L
1 Apr
vs Marsa
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Zebbug Rangers
3–3
D
4 Mar
vs Naxxar Lions
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Gudja United
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Lucía and Zurrieq.
What is the prediction for Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
Our pick is Santa Lucía to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
On our numbers Santa Lucía have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Zurrieq 23%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
Our predicted score is Santa Lucía 1–0 Zurrieq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq?
Santa Lucía vs Zurrieq (Challenge League) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
