FKF Premier League · Kenya
Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.52
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.27 – our chance 63% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +43%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Nairobi United 2.1 – 1.9 Mara Sugar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Nairobi United hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 33% for Mara Sugar.
Nairobi United have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (0W 5D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Mara Sugar have 9 points from their last 6 (2W 3D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. Mara Sugar come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.0 goals (2.1 for Nairobi United, 1.9 for Mara Sugar). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (8%), 1–1 (7%), 2–2 (7%).
In their last 1 meeting, Nairobi United have won 0, Mara Sugar have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.52 is better than our fair price of 1.33, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.27 is our value angle (63% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Nairobi United to win | 43% | 2.33 | 2.27 |
| Double chance | Either team to win | 76% | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 63% | 1.59 | 2.27 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 | 1.52 ▲ |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 1.31 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals | 57% | 1.77 | – |
| Half-time result | Nairobi United ahead at half-time | 36% | 2.74 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Nairobi United / FT Nairobi United | 28% | 3.61 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 | 8% | 12.89 | – |
Form
Nairobi United – last 6
| 8 Nov | @ GOR Mahia | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Oct | @ Murang'a SEAL | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs APS Bomet | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Shabana | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs KCB | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Bandari | 1–1 | D |
Mara Sugar – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Migori Youth | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Oct | vs AFC Leopards | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Oct | vs Mombasa Elite | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ 3K | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | @ Tusker | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Sep | @ Ulinzi Stars | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 1 Apr 2026 | Nairobi United v Mara Sugar | 1–1 |
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hub →Ulinzi Stars
Migori Youth
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
60%@1.52
AFC Leopards
Mombasa Elite
U2.5Under 2.5 goals
69%@1.62
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.52.
Who will win Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
On our numbers Nairobi United have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mara Sugar 33%.
How many goals will there be in Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar?
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.