FKF Premier League · Kenya
AFC Leopards
Mombasa Elite
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.62
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AFC Leopards 1.3 – 0.2 Mombasa Elite expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AFC Leopards are clear favourites at home with a 70% chance of winning, against 8% for Mombasa Elite.
AFC Leopards have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (2W 4D 0L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.2 per game. Mombasa Elite have 3 points from their last 6 (1W 0D 5L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. AFC Leopards come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 1.5 goals (1.3 for AFC Leopards, 0.2 for Mombasa Elite). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (30%), 0–0 (23%), 2–0 (19%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 69% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is better than our fair price of 1.45, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AFC Leopards to win | 70% | 1.42 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | AFC Leopards or draw | 92% | 1.09 | 1.09 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score | 59% | 1.70 | 1.56 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 69% | 1.45 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AFC Leopards / FT AFC Leopards | 40% | 2.53 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 30% | 3.35 | – |
Form
AFC Leopards – last 6
| 7 Nov | @ 3K | 0–0 | D |
| 28 Oct | @ Mara Sugar | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Oct | vs Shabana | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Oct | @ Kenya Police | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Oct | vs Bandari | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Homeboyz | 2–0 | W |
Mombasa Elite – last 6
| 7 Nov | vs Shabana | 2–3 | L |
| 28 Oct | @ KCB | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Oct | @ Mara Sugar | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Oct | vs Homeboyz | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Oct | @ Migori Youth | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Oct | vs Kariobangi Sharks | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite.
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hub →Nairobi United
Mara Sugar
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
75%@1.52
Ulinzi Stars
Migori Youth
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
60%@1.52
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite?
On our numbers AFC Leopards have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mombasa Elite 8%.
How many goals will there be in AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
When is AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite?
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.