FKF Premier League · Kenya
GOR Mahia
Nairobi United
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.38 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.01 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: GOR Mahia 1.6 – 0.8 Nairobi United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
GOR Mahia hold the edge on home soil with a 58% chance of winning, against 21% for Nairobi United.
GOR Mahia have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 per game. Nairobi United have 7 points from their last 6 (1W 4D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for GOR Mahia, 0.8 for Nairobi United). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, GOR Mahia have won 0, Nairobi United have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.38 is close to our fair price of 1.48. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.01 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | GOR Mahia to win ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.79 |
| Double chance | GOR Mahia or draw ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | 2.01 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.48 | 1.38 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT GOR Mahia / FT GOR Mahia ✗ | 34% | 2.93 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 7.03 | – |
Form
GOR Mahia – last 6
| 28 Oct | @ Homeboyz | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Oct | vs Murang'a SEAL | 4–2 | W |
| 2 Oct | vs KCB | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Pyramids FC | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Sep | vs Bandari | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Pyramids FC | 0–2 | L |
Nairobi United – last 6
| 28 Oct | @ Murang'a SEAL | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs APS Bomet | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Shabana | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs KCB | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Oct | vs Bandari | 1–1 | D |
| 31 May | @ GOR Mahia | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 31 May 2026 | GOR Mahia v Nairobi United | 0–1 |
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 2 |  KCB | 6 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 |  AFC Leopards | 6 | +3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Kenya Police | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Shabana | 6 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 |  Mara Sugar | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 7 |  3K | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 |  Murang'a SEAL | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |  Bandari | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 |  Posta Rangers FC | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 |  Tusker | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 12 |  Migori Youth | 5 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 |  APS Bomet | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Ulinzi Stars | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Nairobi United | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Mathare United | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 17 |  Homeboyz | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |  Mombasa Elite | 6 | -7 | 1 |
More FKF Premier League predictions
League hub →Bandari1
Tusker0
U2.5Under 2.5 goals
71%@1.30
✓
FT
Murang'a SEAL2
Ulinzi Stars2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
67%@1.43
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
On our numbers GOR Mahia have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nairobi United 21%.
How many goals will there be in GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United?
GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.