Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.36 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.88 – our chance 59% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +71%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗59% · @2.88
Double chanceMombasa Elite or draw ✗80% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.45
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz preview and prediction
The match
Homeboyz travel to face Mombasa Elite in the FKF Premier League on Wednesday 14 October (13:00 WAT). Mombasa Elite are 18th with 1 points from 6 games (in the bottom three), while Homeboyz sit 17th on 5 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Mombasa Elite's last 5: LWDDW Most recently they lost to Migori Youth 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Homeboyz's last 5: LDDLL Most recently they lost to AFC Leopards 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Mombasa Elite arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Mombasa Elite and 1.1 for Homeboyz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Draw at 2.88 – 59% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mombasa Elite or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mombasa Elite 1–1 Homeboyz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mombasa Elite21%fair 4.78 · @2.60
Draw59%fair 1.69 · @2.88
Homeboyz20%fair 5.04 · @2.70
2.19Expected goals
1.11Mombasa Elite xG
1.08Homeboyz xG
44%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–112%
0–011%
2–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Mombasa Elite 1.1 – 1.1 Homeboyz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
59%
1.69
2.88 ▲
Double chance
Mombasa Elite or draw✗
80%
1.25
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mombasa Elite / FT Mombasa Elite✗
20%
4.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.45
–
Form
Mombasa Elite – last 6
LWDDWL
2 Oct
@ Migori Youth
0–2
L
1 Oct
vs Kariobangi Sharks
2–1
W
11 Sep
vs Police
0–0
D
13 Jun
@ Naivas
1–1
D
7 Jun
vs Nzoia Sugar
1–0
W
1 Jun
@ Luanda Villa
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Homeboyz – last 6
LDDLLD
2 Oct
@ AFC Leopards
0–2
L
31 May
@ Police
1–1
D
23 May
@ Kariobangi Sharks
2–2
D
10 May
@ Murang'a SEAL
0–1
L
3 May
vs GOR Mahia
0–1
L
26 Apr
@ KCB
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mombasa Elite and Homeboyz.
What is the prediction for Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
Our pick is Mombasa Elite or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
On our numbers Mombasa Elite have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 59% and Homeboyz 20%.
How many goals will there be in Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
Our predicted score is Mombasa Elite 1–1 Homeboyz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz?
Mombasa Elite vs Homeboyz (FKF Premier League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
