Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio UbillaCerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction & analysis
Liverpool Montevideo to win
Fair pick · fair odds 1.94 · bookmaker 2.00 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 0.8 – 1.4 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Liverpool Montevideo shade it despite being away from home – 51% to win, against 25% for Cerro Largo.
Cerro Largo have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. Liverpool Montevideo have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. Liverpool Montevideo come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.2 goals (0.8 for Cerro Largo, 1.4 for Liverpool Montevideo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (15%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 2 meetings, Cerro Largo have won 0, Liverpool Montevideo have won 1 and 1 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Liverpool Montevideo to win at a 51% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.00 is better than our fair price of 1.94, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Liverpool Montevideo to win ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.94 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.22 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 47% | 2.13 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo ✗ | 29% | 3.46 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 15% | 6.62 | – |
Form
Cerro Largo – last 6
| 26 Aug | @ Plaza Colonia | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Defensor Sporting | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Aug | vs Juventud | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Aug | @ Penarol | 0–3 | L |
| 25 Jul | @ Central Espanol | 1–0 | W |
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
| 27 Aug | @ Fenix | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs Cerro | 4–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | @ Defensor Sporting | 4–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Albion FC | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | @ Central Espanol | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Jul | @ Defensor Sporting | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
| 8 Jun 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo | 0–0 |
| 1 Mar 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo v Cerro Largo | 2–0 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Liverpool Montevideo to win with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Liverpool Montevideo 51%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.