Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUSA to win ✓63% · @1.53
Double chanceUSA or draw ✓83% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
USA vs Peru preview and prediction
The match
Peru travel to face USA in the Friendlies on Saturday 26 September (21:30 WAT).
Form guide
USA's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Belgium 1–4 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Peru's last 3: LWD Most recently they lost to Spain 1–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.2 for USA and 1.1 for Peru. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA 63%, draw 20%, Peru 17%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: USA 2–1 Peru. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA63%fair 1.58 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @3.80
Peru17%fair 5.95 · @6.25
3.27Expected goals
2.21USA xG
1.06Peru xG
53%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: USA 2.2 – 1.1 Peru expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
USA to win✓
63%
1.58
1.53
Double chance
USA or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.36
Half-time result
USA ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT USA / FT USA✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Form
USA – last 6
LWLWWL
7 Jul
vs Belgium
1–4
L
2 Jul
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–0
W
26 Jun
@ Türkiye
2–3
L
19 Jun
vs Australia
2–0
W
13 Jun
vs Paraguay
4–1
W
6 Jun
vs Germany
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Peru – last 3
LWD
9 Jun
vs Spain
1–3
L
6 Jun
@ Haiti
2–1
W
31 Mar
vs Honduras
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Peru.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win USA vs Peru?
On our numbers USA have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Peru 17%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Peru?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Peru?
Our predicted score is USA 2–1 Peru, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is USA vs Peru?
USA vs Peru (Friendlies) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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