Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Germany W to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGermany W to win ✓62% · @1.80
Double chanceGermany W or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.07
Germany W vs Japan W preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies Women sees Germany W take on Japan W on Tuesday 13 October, kicking off at 16:45 (WAT) at Weserstadion.
Form guide
Germany W's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Australia W 4–2 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.6 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Japan W's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Haiti W 5–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 4.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Germany W and 0.9 for Japan W. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Germany W 62%, draw 24%, Japan W 15%.
Safer route: Germany W or draw (85%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Germany W to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Germany W or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Germany W 2–0 Japan W. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Germany W62%fair 1.63 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.25 · @3.40
Japan W15%fair 6.69 · @3.60
3.00Expected goals
2.06Germany W xG
0.94Japan W xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Germany W 2.1 – 0.9 Japan W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Germany W to win✓
62%
1.63
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Germany W or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Germany W ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Germany W / FT Germany W✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.07
–
Form
Germany W – last 5
WWWWW
9 Oct
vs Australia W
4–2
W
9 Jun
@ Slovenia W
2–0
W
5 Jun
vs Norway W
2–0
W
14 Apr
vs Austria W
5–1
W
3 Mar
vs Slovenia W
5–0
W
3.6Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Japan W – last 6
WDWWWW
9 Oct
@ Haiti W
5–1
W
2 Oct
@ Korea DPR W
2–2
D
29 Sep
vs South Korea W
2–0
W
25 Sep
vs Philippines W
4–0
W
21 Sep
vs Chinese Taipei W
4–0
W
17 Sep
@ Vietnam W
8–0
W
4.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Germany W and Japan W.
Our pick is Germany W or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Germany W vs Japan W?
On our numbers Germany W have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Japan W 15%.
How many goals will there be in Germany W vs Japan W?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Germany W vs Japan W?
Our predicted score is Germany W 2–0 Japan W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Germany W vs Japan W?
Germany W vs Japan W (Friendlies Women) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Weserstadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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