Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Nacional Asuncion to win @ 1.78 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNacional Asuncion to win ✓60% · @1.78
Double chanceNacional Asuncion or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.65
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion preview and prediction
The match
Club Sp. San Lorenzo host Nacional Asuncion in the Division Profesional Clausura on Friday 28 August, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT). Club Sp. San Lorenzo are 12th with 11 points from 19 games (in the bottom three), while Nacional Asuncion sit 4th on 32 points (in the top four). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Club Sp. San Lorenzo's last 5: LLDLL Most recently they lost to Libertad Asuncion 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Nacional Asuncion's last 5: WWDDL Most recently they beat Sportivo Luqueno 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nacional Asuncion arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.6 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo and 1.5 for Nacional Asuncion. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 17%, draw 24%, Nacional Asuncion 60%.
Safer route: Nacional Asuncion or draw (83%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Nacional Asuncion to win at 1.78 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Club Sp. San Lorenzo17%fair 6.05 · @4.45
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.30
Nacional Asuncion60%fair 1.67 · @1.78
2.15Expected goals
0.63Club Sp. San Lorenzo xG
1.52Nacional Asuncion xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–118%
0–213%
0–012%
1–111%
1–28%
1–07%
From our goals model: Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.6 – 1.5 Nacional Asuncion expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional Asuncion to win✓
60%
1.67
1.78 ▲
Double chance
Nacional Asuncion or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional Asuncion / FT Nacional Asuncion✓
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
18%
5.65
–
Form
Club Sp. San Lorenzo – last 6
LLDLLL
24 Aug
@ Libertad Asuncion
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Cerro Porteno
0–1
L
12 Aug
@ 29 de Setiembre
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Sportivo Luqueno
0–2
L
3 Aug
@ Sportivo Trinidense
0–3
L
30 Jul
vs Club Guarani
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Nacional Asuncion – last 6
WWDDLW
24 Aug
vs Sportivo Luqueno
2–0
W
18 Aug
@ Benjamín Aceval
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Sportivo Trinidense
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Club Guarani
0–0
D
3 Aug
@ Deportivo Recoleta
2–3
L
29 Jul
vs Olimpia
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Club Sp. San Lorenzo and Nacional Asuncion.
What is the prediction for Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
On our numbers Club Sp. San Lorenzo have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nacional Asuncion 60%.
How many goals will there be in Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Our predicted score is Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Nacional Asuncion, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion?
Club Sp. San Lorenzo vs Nacional Asuncion (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
