Value bet: Deportivo Recoleta to win @ 3.35 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSportivo Ameliano to win ✓44% · @2.02
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta preview and prediction
The match
The Division Profesional Clausura sees Sportivo Ameliano take on Deportivo Recoleta on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio La Fortaleza del Pikysyry. Sportivo Ameliano are 9th with 19 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Recoleta sit 11th on 16 points (in the bottom three). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sportivo Ameliano's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Olimpia 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Deportivo Recoleta's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Boca Juniors 0–4 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 May 2026, finished Sportivo Ameliano 3–2 Deportivo Recoleta. Across their last 2 meetings Sportivo Ameliano have won 1, Deportivo Recoleta 0, with 1 draw and 3.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.3 for Deportivo Recoleta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Deportivo Recoleta to win at 3.35 – 35% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sportivo Ameliano44%fair 2.28 · @2.02
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.35
Deportivo Recoleta35%fair 2.84 · @3.35
2.77Expected goals
1.48Sportivo Ameliano xG
1.29Deportivo Recoleta xG
59%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Sportivo Ameliano 1.5 – 1.3 Deportivo Recoleta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?
On our numbers Sportivo Ameliano have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Deportivo Recoleta 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Ameliano 1–1 Deportivo Recoleta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?
Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta (Division Profesional Clausura) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Fortaleza del Pikysyry.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
