NPFL · Nigeria · Kwara Sports StadiumKwara United vs Abia Warriors prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Kwara United 1.0 – 1.3 Abia Warriors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Abia Warriors shade it despite being away from home – 51% to win, against 38% for Kwara United.
Kwara United have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Abia Warriors have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.3 goals (1.0 for Kwara United, 1.3 for Abia Warriors). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 44%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (13%), 1–0 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Kwara United have won 0, Abia Warriors have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 80% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Abia Warriors to win ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.79 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 59% | 1.69 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 46% | 2.17 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Abia Warriors / FT Abia Warriors ✗ | 25% | 4.07 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.83 | – |
Form
Kwara United – last 6
| 10 Oct | @ Ikorodu City | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Ranchers Bees | 2–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Kun Khalifat FC | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Sep | vs Nasarawa United | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sep | @ Warri Wolves | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Katsina United | 3–0 | W |
Abia Warriors – last 6
| 11 Oct | vs Rivers United | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Oct | @ Enugu Rangers | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Sep | vs Bendel Insurance | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Sep | @ Barau FC | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | @ Sporting Lagos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Ikorodu City | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 22 Feb 2026 | Abia Warriors v Kwara United | 1–0 |
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
More NPFL predictions
League hub
Inter Lagos0
Sporting Lagos3
Ranchers Bees1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Kwara United vs Abia Warriors?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance.
Who will win Kwara United vs Abia Warriors?
On our numbers Kwara United have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Abia Warriors 51%.
How many goals will there be in Kwara United vs Abia Warriors?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
When is Kwara United vs Abia Warriors?
Kwara United vs Abia Warriors (NPFL) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Kwara Sports Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.