NPFL · Nigeria · Kwara Sports StadiumKwara United vs Nasarawa United prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Kwara United 1.6 – 0.8 Nasarawa United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Kwara United are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 27% for Nasarawa United.
Kwara United have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 per game. Nasarawa United have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for Kwara United, 0.8 for Nasarawa United). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 43%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (12%), 2–0 (11%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Kwara United to win ✓ | 62% | 1.61 | – |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.46 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.74 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Kwara United / FT Kwara United ✗ | 33% | 3.02 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 14% | 6.93 | – |
Form
Kwara United – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Warri Wolves | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Katsina United | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Plateau United | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | vs Kano Pillars | 2–2 | D |
| 24 May | @ Bayelsa United | 0–4 | L |
| 19 Apr | vs Barau FC | 2–1 | W |
Nasarawa United – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Rivers United | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | @ Enugu Rangers | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Bendel Insurance | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Barau FC | 1–3 | L |
| 17 Jun | vs Ikorodu City | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Jun | vs Plateau United | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kwara United and Nasarawa United.
NPFL table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Enugu Rangers | 38 | +20 | 68 |
| 2 |  Rivers United | 38 | +13 | 67 |
| 3 |  Shooting Stars | 38 | +1 | 60 |
| 4 |  Ikorodu City | 38 | +4 | 58 |
| 5 |  Nasarawa United | 38 | +3 | 56 |
| 6 |  Abia Warriors | 38 | -3 | 55 |
| 7 |  Bendel Insurance | 37 | +5 | 53 |
| 8 |  Barau FC | 38 | +4 | 52 |
| 9 |  Katsina United | 37 | -2 | 52 |
| 10 |  Kano Pillars | 38 | -2 | 51 |
| 11 |  Plateau United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 12 |  Kwara United | 38 | -1 | 50 |
| 13 |  Enyimba | 38 | +2 | 49 |
| 14 |  Kun Khalifat FC | 38 | -1 | 49 |
| 15 |  Warri Wolves | 38 | -5 | 49 |
| 16 |  Niger Tornadoes | 38 | +1 | 48 |
| 17 |  Remo Stars | 38 | -5 | 47 |
| 18 |  El Kanemi Warriors | 38 | -16 | 47 |
| 19 |  Bayelsa United | 38 | -5 | 43 |
| 20 |  Wikki Tourist | 38 | -12 | 40 |
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Ranchers Bees0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance.
Who will win Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?
On our numbers Kwara United have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Nasarawa United 27%.
How many goals will there be in Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
When is Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?
Kwara United vs Nasarawa United (NPFL) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Kwara Sports Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.