Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.44Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogradeci to win ✗73% · @1.09
Double chanceEither team to win ✗87% · @1.04
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.70
Pogradeci vs Oriku preview and prediction
The match
The 1st Division sees Pogradeci take on Oriku on Wednesday 28 October, kicking off at 13:30 (WAT). Pogradeci are 5th with 17 points from 10 games (in the top half), while Oriku sit 12th on 2 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Pogradeci's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Bylis 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Oriku's last 5: DLLLL Most recently they drew with Sopoti Librazhd 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Pogradeci arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.2 for Pogradeci and 0.7 for Oriku. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 44% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Pogradeci 73%, draw 13%, Oriku 13%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 60% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Pogradeci 3–0 Oriku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Pogradeci73%fair 1.36 · @1.09
Draw13%fair 7.56 · @9.00
Oriku13%fair 7.43 · @21.00
2.91Expected goals
2.19Pogradeci xG
0.73Oriku xG
44%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–012%
3–09%
2–19%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Pogradeci 2.2 – 0.7 Oriku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogradeci to win✗
73%
1.36
1.09
Double chance
Either team to win✗
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Pogradeci ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogradeci / FT Pogradeci✗
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.70
–
Form
Pogradeci – last 6
DDWWDW
23 Oct
@ Bylis
2–2
D
17 Oct
vs Sopoti Librazhd
2–2
D
11 Oct
@ Korabi Peshkopi
2–0
W
7 Oct
vs Delvina
7–0
W
20 Sep
vs Flamurtari
0–0
D
16 Sep
@ FK Kukesi
3–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Oriku – last 6
DLLLLL
24 Oct
@ Sopoti Librazhd
1–1
D
16 Oct
vs Flamurtari
1–4
L
11 Oct
@ Kastrioti Krujë
0–2
L
7 Oct
vs Butrinti Sarandë
1–2
L
20 Sep
vs Burreli
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Besa Kavajë
0–5
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pogradeci and Oriku.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Pogradeci vs Oriku?
On our numbers Pogradeci have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Oriku 13%.
How many goals will there be in Pogradeci vs Oriku?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pogradeci vs Oriku?
Our predicted score is Pogradeci 3–0 Oriku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Pogradeci vs Oriku?
Pogradeci vs Oriku (1st Division) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
