Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPogradeci to win ✓63% · @1.80
Double chancePogradeci or draw ✓85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.69
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.43
FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci preview and prediction
The match
FK Kukesi host Pogradeci in the 1st Division on Wednesday 16 September, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Kukes Arena. FK Kukesi are 4th with 18 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Pogradeci sit 5th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
FK Kukesi's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1–3 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Pogradeci's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Kastrioti Krujë 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for FK Kukesi and 1.7 for Pogradeci. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 41%.
Betting angles
Win chances: FK Kukesi 15%, draw 22%, Pogradeci 63%.
Safer route: Pogradeci or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Pogradeci to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FK Kukesi 0–1 Pogradeci. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FK Kukesi15%fair 6.87 · @3.80
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.40
Pogradeci63%fair 1.59 · @1.80
2.41Expected goals
0.68FK Kukesi xG
1.73Pogradeci xG
41%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: FK Kukesi 0.7 – 1.7 Pogradeci expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pogradeci to win✓
63%
1.59
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Pogradeci or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Half-time result
Pogradeci ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pogradeci / FT Pogradeci✓
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.43
–
Form
FK Kukesi – last 6
LWLWWD
12 Sep
@ Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1–3
L
5 Sep
vs Besëlidhja Lezhë
2–0
W
12 Aug
vs Besa Kavajë
1–4
L
28 May
vs Butrinti Sarandë
2–0
W
3 May
vs Besa Kavajë
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Korabi Peshkopi
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pogradeci – last 6
WDDWLL
12 Sep
vs Kastrioti Krujë
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0–0
D
11 May
vs Besa Kavajë
0–0
D
7 May
vs Kastrioti Krujë
3–0
W
3 May
@ Luftëtari
0–3
L
19 Apr
@ Laci
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FK Kukesi and Pogradeci.
What is the prediction for FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?
Our pick is Pogradeci to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?
On our numbers FK Kukesi have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pogradeci 63%.
How many goals will there be in FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?
Our predicted score is FK Kukesi 0–1 Pogradeci, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci?
FK Kukesi vs Pogradeci (1st Division) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Kukes Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
