Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Newroz to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewroz to win ✓60% · @1.91
Double chanceNewroz or draw ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓61% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.76
Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra preview and prediction
The match
Newroz host Al Minaa Basra in the Iraqi League on Friday 16 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Newroz are 2nd with 26 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Al Minaa Basra sit 9th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Newroz's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Zakho 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.0 conceded. 6 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Al Minaa Basra's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Ghaz Al Shamal 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Newroz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 April 2026, finished Newroz 4–1 Al Minaa Basra.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Newroz and 0.7 for Al Minaa Basra. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newroz 60%, draw 20%, Al Minaa Basra 20%.
Safer route: Newroz or draw (80%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Newroz to win at 1.91 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Newroz or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Newroz 1–0 Al Minaa Basra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newroz60%fair 1.67 · @1.91
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.10
Al Minaa Basra20%fair 5.07 · @3.70
2.14Expected goals
1.48Newroz xG
0.66Al Minaa Basra xG
39%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–013%
0–012%
1–112%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Newroz 1.5 – 0.7 Al Minaa Basra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our pick is Newroz or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
On our numbers Newroz have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Al Minaa Basra 20%.
How many goals will there be in Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our predicted score is Newroz 1–0 Al Minaa Basra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra?
Newroz vs Al Minaa Basra (Iraqi League) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
