Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultErbil to win ✗43% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.41
Erbil vs Al-Karma preview and prediction
The match
Erbil host Al-Karma in the Iraqi League on Monday 14 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Franso Hariri Stadium. Erbil are 7th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Al-Karma sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Erbil's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Diyala 2–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Al-Karma's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Naft 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Erbil and 1.0 for Al-Karma. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Erbil 43%, draw 23%, Al-Karma 35%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Erbil 1–0 Al-Karma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Erbil43%fair 2.34 · @2.40
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Al-Karma35%fair 2.88 · @2.75
2.14Expected goals
1.15Erbil xG
0.99Al-Karma xG
45%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Erbil 1.2 – 1.0 Al-Karma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erbil to win✗
43%
2.34
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erbil / FT Erbil✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.41
–
Form
Erbil – last 6
WDWWDW
8 Sep
vs Diyala
2–0
W
4 Sep
@ Al Shorta
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Al Minaa Basra
2–0
W
25 Aug
@ Al Karkh
1–0
W
21 Aug
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Al Kahrabaa
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al-Karma – last 6
WWWDWW
9 Sep
vs Naft
3–0
W
3 Sep
@ Diyala
2–1
W
30 Aug
vs Karbala
2–0
W
26 Aug
@ Al Kahrabaa
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Al Shorta
2–1
W
27 May
vs Diyala
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erbil and Al-Karma.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Erbil vs Al-Karma?
On our numbers Erbil have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Al-Karma 35%.
How many goals will there be in Erbil vs Al-Karma?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erbil vs Al-Karma?
Our predicted score is Erbil 1–0 Al-Karma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Erbil vs Al-Karma?
Erbil vs Al-Karma (Iraqi League) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Franso Hariri Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
