Value bet: Naft to win @ 3.20 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Minaa Basra to win ✗41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗69% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.24
Al Minaa Basra vs Naft preview and prediction
The match
Al Minaa Basra host Naft in the Iraqi League on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT). Al Minaa Basra are 9th with 17 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Naft sit 3rd on 25 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Al Minaa Basra's last 5: LWWDD Most recently they lost to Erbil 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Naft's last 5: DDDWW Most recently they drew with Al Talaba 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Naft arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 14 May 2026, finished Naft 1–1 Al Minaa Basra.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Al Minaa Basra and 0.8 for Naft. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Minaa Basra 41%, draw 26%, Naft 33%.
Value angle: Naft to win at 3.20 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Al Minaa Basra 0–0 Naft. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Minaa Basra41%fair 2.43 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.90
Naft33%fair 3.01 · @3.20
1.81Expected goals
0.98Al Minaa Basra xG
0.83Naft xG
41%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–016%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Al Minaa Basra 1.0 – 0.8 Naft expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Al Minaa Basra vs Naft?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Al Minaa Basra vs Naft?
On our numbers Al Minaa Basra have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Naft 33%.
How many goals will there be in Al Minaa Basra vs Naft?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Minaa Basra vs Naft?
Our predicted score is Al Minaa Basra 0–0 Naft, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Al Minaa Basra vs Naft?
Al Minaa Basra vs Naft (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
