Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.83 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.83Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Talaba to win ✓58% · @1.83
Double chanceAl Talaba or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 1.99
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12
Al Talaba vs Newroz preview and prediction
The match
Al Talaba host Newroz in the Iraqi League on Wednesday 26 August, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Al Talaba Stadium. Al Talaba are 11th with 16 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Newroz sit 2nd on 26 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Al Talaba's last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with Duhok 3–3 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Newroz's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Gharraf 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Newroz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.1 for Al Talaba and 1.1 for Newroz. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score in 50% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Talaba 58%, draw 25%, Newroz 17%.
Safer route: Al Talaba or draw (83%) at 1.18.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 – 53% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Al Talaba to win – a 58% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.72, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Al Talaba 2–1 Newroz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Talaba58%fair 1.72 · @1.83
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.20
Newroz17%fair 5.95 · @3.90
3.21Expected goals
2.11Al Talaba xG
1.10Newroz xG
50%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Al Talaba 2.1 – 1.1 Newroz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Talaba to win✓
58%
1.72
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Al Talaba or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Al Talaba ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Talaba / FT Al Talaba✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.12
–
Form
Al Talaba – last 6
DLDDDL
22 Aug
@ Duhok
3–3
D
15 Aug
@ Diyala
1–2
L
1 Jun
vs Al Karkh
1–1
D
28 May
@ Al Minaa Basra
1–1
D
19 May
vs Al-Karma
1–1
D
5 May
vs Al Zawra'a
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Newroz – last 6
LDLDWW
22 Aug
@ Gharraf
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
3–3
D
1 Jun
@ Naft
1–2
L
27 May
vs Mosul
1–1
D
20 May
vs Zakho
2–1
W
27 Apr
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Talaba and Newroz.
Our pick is Al Talaba to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Al Talaba vs Newroz?
On our numbers Al Talaba have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Newroz 17%.
How many goals will there be in Al Talaba vs Newroz?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Talaba vs Newroz?
Our predicted score is Al Talaba 2–1 Newroz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Al Talaba vs Newroz?
Al Talaba vs Newroz (Iraqi League) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Al Talaba Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
