Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone prediction & analysis
81%
Footrivo pick
Vigor Senigallia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Vigor Senigallia to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVigor Senigallia to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceVigor Senigallia or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.94
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.02
Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone preview and prediction
The match
Fossombrone travel to face Vigor Senigallia in the Serie D Girone F on Sunday 27 September (14:00 WAT). Vigor Senigallia are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Fossombrone sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Vigor Senigallia's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Termoli Calcio 2–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Fossombrone's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Lanciano FC 2–4 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Vigor Senigallia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Vigor Senigallia and 1.0 for Fossombrone. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 52% and both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Vigor Senigallia or draw (81%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Vigor Senigallia to win at 1.95 – 62% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vigor Senigallia or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Vigor Senigallia 2–0 Fossombrone. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vigor Senigallia62%fair 1.63 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.25
Fossombrone19%fair 5.35 · @3.40
3.01Expected goals
2.01Vigor Senigallia xG
1.00Fossombrone xG
48%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Vigor Senigallia 2.0 – 1.0 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vigor Senigallia to win✗
62%
1.63
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Vigor Senigallia or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
2.05 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Vigor Senigallia ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vigor Senigallia / FT Vigor Senigallia✗
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
Vigor Senigallia – last 6
WWWWDL
20 Sep
@ Termoli Calcio
2–1
W
16 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Real Giulianova
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Sporting Trestina
5–2
W
3 May
@ Unipomezia
3–3
D
26 Apr
vs Chieti
2–3
L
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fossombrone – last 6
LWLWLL
20 Sep
vs Lanciano FC
2–4
L
16 Sep
@ Sporting Trestina
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs L'Aquila
0–4
L
6 Sep
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Cesena
0–3
L
3 May
@ Recanatese
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vigor Senigallia and Fossombrone.
What is the prediction for Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
Our pick is Vigor Senigallia or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
On our numbers Vigor Senigallia have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fossombrone 19%.
How many goals will there be in Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
Our predicted score is Vigor Senigallia 2–0 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone?
Vigor Senigallia vs Fossombrone (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
