Serie D Girone E · Italy · Porta Elisa
Lucchese
San Donato Tavarnelle
Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle prediction & analysis
Lucchese or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.24 · Won ✓
Value bet: Lucchese to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lucchese 2.1 – 0.9 San Donato Tavarnelle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lucchese are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 14% for San Donato Tavarnelle.
Lucchese have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (0W 4D 2L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.7 per game. San Donato Tavarnelle have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 for Lucchese, 0.9 for San Donato Tavarnelle). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Lucchese or draw at a 86% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.24 is better than our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Lucchese to win at 1.85 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lucchese to win ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Lucchese or draw ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | 1.24 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 80% | 1.26 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.72 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | – |
| Half-time result | Lucchese ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lucchese / FT Lucchese ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.84 | – |
Form
Lucchese – last 6
| 4 Nov | vs Sestri Levante | 1–1 | D |
| 1 Nov | @ Terranuova Traiana | 2–3 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Sasso Marconi Zola | 0–2 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Ternana | 2–2 | D |
| 7 Oct | @ Seravezza | 1–1 | D |
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
| 1 Nov | vs Montevarchi Calcio | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | @ Scandicci | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Tau Altopascio | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Prato | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Oct | vs Mezzolara | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | @ Flaminia | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lucchese and San Donato Tavarnelle.
More Serie D Girone E predictions
Mezzolara1
Gavorrano1
GGBoth teams to score
57%@1.85
✓
FT
Montevarchi Calcio3
Sasso Marconi Zola1
GGBoth teams to score
56%@1.77
✓
FT
Rondinella0
Ternana3
2Ternana to win
60%@1.73
✓
FT
Scandicci1
Flaminia2
O1.5Over 1.5 goals
74%@1.25
✓
FT
Seravezza1
Prato3
GGBoth teams to score
57%@1.70
✓
FT
Robur Siena4
Grassina0
U3.5Under 3.5 goals
67%@1.39
✗
FT
Tau Altopascio0
Terranuova Traiana0
1XTau Altopascio or draw
85%@1.24
✓
Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Our pick is Lucchese or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
On our numbers Lucchese have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and San Donato Tavarnelle 14%.
How many goals will there be in Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Lucchese vs San Donato Tavarnelle (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Porta Elisa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.