Serie D Girone E · ItalyProgresso vs Ternana prediction & analysis
Ternana to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Progresso 0.8 – 1.9 Ternana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Ternana travel as clear favourites – 63% to win, against 16% for Progresso.
Progresso have taken 0 points from their last 6 matches (0W 0D 6L), scoring 0.2 and conceding 2.3 per game. Ternana have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 2.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Ternana come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.7 goals (0.8 for Progresso, 1.9 for Ternana). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 47%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (12%), 0–2 (12%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Ternana to win at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is close to our fair price of 1.58.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ternana to win ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | 1.57 |
| Double chance | Ternana or draw ✓ | 84% | 1.20 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.42 | – |
| Half-time result | Ternana ahead at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.23 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Ternana / FT Ternana ✗ | 40% | 2.52 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✓ | 12% | 8.09 | – |
Form
Progresso – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Grassina | 0–1 | L |
| 11 Oct | vs Robur Siena | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Oct | @ Rondinella | 1–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Montevarchi Calcio | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Seravezza | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Lucchese | 0–5 | L |
Ternana – last 6
| 21 Oct | vs Recanatese | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Robur Siena | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Lucchese | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Montevarchi Calcio | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Scandicci | 0–0 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Tau Altopascio | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progresso and Ternana.
Serie D Girone E table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Progresso vs Ternana?
Our pick is Ternana to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Progresso vs Ternana?
On our numbers Progresso have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ternana 63%.
How many goals will there be in Progresso vs Ternana?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Progresso vs Ternana?
Progresso vs Ternana (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.