Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.06 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLuparense to win ✗68% · @1.43
Double chanceLuparense or draw ✓87% · fair 1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.06
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.99
Luparense vs Calvi Noale preview and prediction
The match
Calvi Noale travel to face Luparense in the Serie D Girone C on Sunday 1 November (14:30 WAT). Luparense are 2nd with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Calvi Noale sit 16th on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Luparense's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with Altavilla 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Calvi Noale's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Este 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Luparense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Luparense and 0.6 for Calvi Noale. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.06 – 52% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.34. Predicted score: Luparense 1–0 Calvi Noale. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Luparense68%fair 1.48 · @1.43
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @4.20
Calvi Noale13%fair 7.84 · @6.56
2.37Expected goals
1.79Luparense xG
0.58Calvi Noale xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–09%
3–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Luparense 1.8 – 0.6 Calvi Noale expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luparense to win✗
68%
1.48
1.43
Double chance
Luparense or draw✓
87%
1.15
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
2.06 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.34
Half-time result
Luparense ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Luparense / FT Luparense✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.99
–
Form
Luparense – last 6
DDWWWD
25 Oct
@ Altavilla
0–0
D
18 Oct
@ Sandona
0–0
D
11 Oct
vs Este
1–0
W
4 Oct
@ Brian Lignano
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Clodiense
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Schio
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Calvi Noale – last 6
LLLWLW
25 Oct
vs Este
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Clodiense
2–3
L
11 Oct
vs Sandona
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Virtus Bolzano
3–1
W
27 Sep
vs Brian Lignano
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Legnago Salus
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Luparense and Calvi Noale.
What is the prediction for Luparense vs Calvi Noale?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win Luparense vs Calvi Noale?
On our numbers Luparense have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Calvi Noale 13%.
How many goals will there be in Luparense vs Calvi Noale?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Luparense vs Calvi Noale?
Our predicted score is Luparense 1–0 Calvi Noale, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Luparense vs Calvi Noale?
Luparense vs Calvi Noale (Serie D Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
