Serie D Girone A · ItalyDerthona vs Imperia prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Derthona 0.9 – 0.8 Imperia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Derthona and Imperia on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Derthona have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (1W 3D 2L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Imperia have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 1.7 goals (0.9 for Derthona, 0.8 for Imperia). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (19%), 1–0 (17%), 0–1 (15%).
In their last 1 meeting, Derthona have won 0, Imperia have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 68% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is better than our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Derthona to win ✗ | 40% | 2.47 | 2.50 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Under 1.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.60 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 27% | 3.77 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 17% | 5.99 | – |
Form
Derthona – last 6
| 6 Sep | @ Celle Varazze | 1–0 | W |
| 10 May | vs Gozzano | 1–1 | D |
| 3 May | @ Saluzzo | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | vs Imperia | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | @ Città di Varese | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Apr | vs Celle Varazze | 0–3 | L |
Imperia – last 6
| 6 Sep | vs Millesimo | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Pro Patria | 1–2 | L |
| 3 May | vs Celle Varazze | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Apr | @ Derthona | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Apr | vs Sanremese | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Apr | vs Asti | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 2026 | Derthona v Imperia | 0–0 |
Serie D Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Alessandria | 11 | +12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Chisola | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Biellese | 11 | +10 | 21 |
| 4 |  Derthona | 11 | +1 | 19 |
| 5 |  Ligorna | 11 | +5 | 18 |
| 6 |  Millesimo | 11 | +6 | 17 |
| 7 |  Sanremese | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Saluzzo | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 9 |  Imperia | 11 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Asti | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 11 |  Gozzano | 11 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 |  Sestri Levante | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 |  Borgosesia | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 |  Lascaris | 11 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 |  Fezzanese | 11 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 |  Bra | 11 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |  Valenzana | 11 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Celle Varazze | 11 | -15 | 4 |
More Serie D Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Derthona vs Imperia?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Derthona vs Imperia?
On our numbers Derthona have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Imperia 35%.
How many goals will there be in Derthona vs Imperia?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
When is Derthona vs Imperia?
Derthona vs Imperia (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.