Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Nova Iguaçu to win @ 3.20 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSampaio Corrêa RJ to win ✓39% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · fair 1.31
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.67
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.69
Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu preview and prediction
The match
Sampaio Corrêa RJ host Nova Iguaçu in the Copa Rio on Wednesday 2 September, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida.
Form guide
Sampaio Corrêa RJ's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Nova Iguaçu 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nova Iguaçu's last 5: WDWDW Most recently they beat Sampaio Corrêa RJ 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nova Iguaçu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 August 2026, finished Nova Iguaçu 2–0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ. Across their last 2 meetings Sampaio Corrêa RJ have won 0, Nova Iguaçu 1, with 1 draw and 2.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Sampaio Corrêa RJ and 0.9 for Nova Iguaçu. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Nova Iguaçu to win at 3.20 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0–0 Nova Iguaçu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sampaio Corrêa RJ39%fair 2.59 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Nova Iguaçu38%fair 2.66 · @3.20
1.81Expected goals
0.92Sampaio Corrêa RJ xG
0.90Nova Iguaçu xG
38%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–016%
1–015%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0.9 – 0.9 Nova Iguaçu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
On our numbers Sampaio Corrêa RJ have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nova Iguaçu 38%.
How many goals will there be in Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
Our predicted score is Sampaio Corrêa RJ 0–0 Nova Iguaçu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu?
Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs Nova Iguaçu (Copa Rio) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Rio · Brazil · Estadio Lourival Gomes de Almeida
