Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada prediction & analysis
59%
Footrivo pick
Casa de Portugal to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCasa de Portugal to win ✓59% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.96
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada preview and prediction
The match
Casa de Portugal host Penya Encarnada in the 1a Divisió on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT). Casa de Portugal are 8th with 8 points from 8 games (in the bottom three), while Penya Encarnada sit 6th on 9 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Casa de Portugal's last 4: LLLD Most recently they lost to FC Santa Coloma 0–5 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Penya Encarnada's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Sporting Escaldes 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Penya Encarnada arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.0 for Casa de Portugal and 1.2 for Penya Encarnada. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 51% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Casa de Portugal 59%, draw 18%, Penya Encarnada 23%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Casa de Portugal to win – a 59% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.69, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Casa de Portugal 2–1 Penya Encarnada. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Casa de Portugal59%fair 1.69 · @1.80
Draw18%fair 5.67 · @4.10
Penya Encarnada23%fair 4.33 · @3.20
3.20Expected goals
2.04Casa de Portugal xG
1.16Penya Encarnada xG
51%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Casa de Portugal 2.0 – 1.2 Penya Encarnada expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Casa de Portugal to win✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Casa de Portugal ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Casa de Portugal / FT Casa de Portugal✓
36%
2.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.17
–
Form
Casa de Portugal – last 4
LLLD
11 Oct
@ FC Santa Coloma
0–5
L
20 Sep
vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
0–3
L
13 Sep
@ Ordino
2–3
L
6 Sep
vs Ranger's
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Penya Encarnada – last 6
WDLDLL
11 Oct
vs Sporting Escaldes
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Carroi
2–2
D
13 Sep
@ FC Santa Coloma
0–4
L
6 Sep
vs Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
1–1
D
17 May
@ Atlètic Club d'Escaldes
0–2
L
10 May
vs Ranger's
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa de Portugal and Penya Encarnada.
What is the prediction for Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
Our pick is Casa de Portugal to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
On our numbers Casa de Portugal have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Penya Encarnada 23%.
How many goals will there be in Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
Our predicted score is Casa de Portugal 2–1 Penya Encarnada, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada (1a Divisió) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
