Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win ✓40% · @2.56
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.42
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
Cruzeiro travel to MRV Arena in the Copa Do Brasil on Wednesday 2 September (01:00 WAT) to face Atletico-MG.
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: WDDDW Most recently they beat Vitoria 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruzeiro's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Vasco DA Gama 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Atletico-MG arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 26 August 2026, finished Cruzeiro 1–1 Atletico-MG. Across their last 2 meetings Atletico-MG have won 1, Cruzeiro 0, with 1 draw and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Atletico-MG and 1.0 for Cruzeiro. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–0 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG40%fair 2.53 · @2.56
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.98
Cruzeiro35%fair 2.88 · @2.92
2.09Expected goals
1.09Atletico-MG xG
1.00Cruzeiro xG
55%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.1 – 1.0 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Cruzeiro 35%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–0 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro?
Atletico-MG vs Cruzeiro (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
