Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.28Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.30 – our chance 54% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVirtus to win ✓68% · @1.28
Double chanceVirtus or draw ✓89% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓64% · fair 1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗60% · fair 1.66
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓21% · fair 4.79
Fiorentino vs Virtus preview and prediction
The match
Fiorentino host Virtus in the Campionato on Friday 4 September, with kick-off at 20:15 (WAT) at Stadio di Fiorentino. Fiorentino are 8th with 9 points from 8 games (in the top half), while Virtus sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Fiorentino's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat San Marino Academy 2–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Virtus's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with La Fiorita 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fiorentino arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 February 2026, finished Virtus 3–0 Fiorentino.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.4 for Fiorentino and 1.6 for Virtus. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 54% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.30 – 54% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Virtus to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Fiorentino 0–1 Virtus. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Fiorentino11%fair 8.80 · @7.50
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @5.00
Virtus68%fair 1.48 · @1.28
2.03Expected goals
0.44Fiorentino xG
1.59Virtus xG
36%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–217%
0–013%
1–19%
0–39%
1–27%
From our goals model: Fiorentino 0.4 – 1.6 Virtus expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Virtus to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Fiorentino vs Virtus?
On our numbers Fiorentino have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Virtus 68%.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentino vs Virtus?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 36% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fiorentino vs Virtus?
Our predicted score is Fiorentino 0–1 Virtus, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Fiorentino vs Virtus?
Fiorentino vs Virtus (Campionato) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Stadio di Fiorentino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
